Investing in 3 Singapore bank stocks compared to SPDR STI ETF (SGX:ES3)

Here’s a comparison between investing directly in the three local Singapore banks (DBS, OCBC, and UOB) and investing in the SPDR® Straits Times Index ETF (SGX: ES3) to help you evaluate potential returns.

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1. Direct Investment in Banks

Assumptions:

• Investment: $50,000 SGD split equally among DBS, OCBC, and UOB.
• Dividend yields:
  • DBS: ~5.3%
  • OCBC: ~5.0%
  • UOB: ~5.0%
• Capital growth: Assume a 5% annual price increase per stock (based on historical performance and outlook).

Projected Returns (1 Year):

Dividends

• DBS: $16,667 * 5.3% = ~$883.35
• OCBC: $16,667 * 5.0% = ~$833.35
• UOB: $16,667 * 5.0% = ~$833.35
  Total Dividend Income: ~$2,550 SGD

Capital Appreciation

• Stock price appreciation of 5%: ~$50,000 * 5% = ~$2,500 SGD.

Total Expected Returns (Direct Bank Investment):
~$2,550 (dividends) + $2,500 (capital gains) = $5,050 SGD (10.1%)

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2. Investment in SPDR® STI ETF (SGX: ES3)

Assumptions:

• Investment: $50,000 SGD into SPDR® STI ETF.
• Dividend yield: ~4.0% (historical yield of the ETF).
• Capital growth: Assume 3% annual increase (reflecting the broader market).

Projected Returns (1 Year):

Dividends

• ETF dividends: $50,000 * 4.0% = ~$2,000 SGD.

Capital Appreciation

• ETF price appreciation of 3%: $50,000 * 3% = ~$1,500 SGD.

Total Expected Returns (STI ETF Investment):
~$2,000 (dividends) + $1,500 (capital gains) = $3,500 SGD (7.0%)

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Key Comparison

Metric	Direct Bank Investment	SPDR® STI ETF
Dividend Yield	~5.1%	~4.0%
Capital Growth	~5.0%	~3.0%
Total Return (1 Year)	~10.1% ($5,050)	~7.0% ($3,500)
Diversification	Low (3 Banks)	High (30 Stocks)
Risk Level	Higher (Concentrated)	Lower (Diversified)
Liquidity & Flexibility	Equal (Listed on SGX)	Equal (Listed on SGX)

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Recommendation Based on Goals

• Higher Potential Returns: Choose direct investments in the banks for stronger dividends and capital growth.
• Diversification & Lower Risk: Invest in SPDR® STI ETF to balance exposure to multiple sectors.

Assumptions for the 10-Year Projection

1. Initial Investment: $50,000 SGD evenly split:

   • $16,667 each in DBS, OCBC, and UOB.
   • $50,000 in SPDR® STI ETF.

2. Dividend Yields (based on historical averages):

   • DBS: 5.3%, OCBC: 5.0%, UOB: 5.0%, STI ETF: 4.0%.

3. Annual Capital Growth Rates:

   • DBS: 5%, OCBC: 4%, UOB: 4.5%, STI ETF: 3%.

4. Dividend Reinvestment: Assume dividends are reinvested annually to purchase more shares.

5. No Fees: Exclude transaction costs for simplicity.

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Projection Results

Year	DBS Value (SGD)	OCBC Value (SGD)	UOB Value (SGD)	Total Banks (SGD)	SPDR® STI ETF Value (SGD)
1	17,834	17,333	17,526	52,692	51,500
2	19,077	18,053	18,319	55,449	53,545
3	20,433	18,809	19,136	58,378	55,688
4	21,910	19,601	19,978	61,489	57,929
5	23,516	20,429	20,847	64,792	60,269
6	25,261	21,297	21,743	68,301	62,711
7	27,154	22,203	22,668	72,026	65,259
8	29,208	23,151	23,621	75,980	67,916
9	31,434	24,140	24,604	80,178	70,683
10	33,847	25,172	25,617	84,636	73,566

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Key Observations

1. Total Value After 10 Years:

   • 3 Local Banks: ~$84,636 SGD.
   • SPDR® STI ETF: ~$73,566 SGD.

2. Annualized Returns (including dividends and capital growth):

   • Banks Portfolio: ~6.5% CAGR.
   • SPDR® STI ETF: ~5.8% CAGR.

3. Diversification vs. Growth:

   • The 3 banks portfolio outperforms due to stronger dividend yields and capital growth rates.
   • The STI ETF offers broad diversification but sacrifices growth due to its sector-weighted structure.

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Recommendations Based on Results

• Growth-Oriented: Focus on individual bank stocks for higher returns over time.
• Balanced Risk/Reward: Allocate a portion to both the banks and the STI ETF.

Dividend stocks in Singapore (Banks) and to raise the stake

Investing in Singapore's banking sector offers exposure to some of the region's most robust financial institutions. The three primary banks—DBS Group Holdings Ltd (SGX: D05), United Overseas Bank Ltd (SGX: U11), and Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation Ltd (SGX: O39)—have demonstrated strong financial performance and offer attractive dividend yields.

DBS Group Holdings Ltd (SGX: D05)

DBS is Singapore's largest bank, known for its extensive presence across 18 markets and a strong focus on digital banking innovations. In the second quarter of 2024, DBS reported a net profit of S$2.79 billion, a 6% increase from the same period the previous year. The bank declared a dividend of 54 Singapore cents per share, up from 44 cents, with plans to raise dividends by $0.24 annually over the next few years. The trailing 12-month dividend yield stands at 5.34%, with projections reaching 7% by 2025 and up to 7.8% by 2026.

United Overseas Bank Ltd (SGX: U11)

UOB achieved a record net profit of S$1.61 billion in Q3 2024, marking a 16% rise from the previous year. This performance was driven by strong trading and investment activities. The bank's shares rose by 5.7% to a record high of S$35.20. UOB anticipates higher single-digit loan growth in 2025, compared to low single-digit growth in 2024, and forecasts double-digit fee growth with stable cost-to-income and credit cost ratios for the next year.

Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation Ltd (SGX: O39)

OCBC reported a net profit of S$1.97 billion in Q3 2024, up 9% year-on-year, bringing its 9M24 net profit to a new record of S$5.9 billion. The bank's performance was bolstered by record net fee income, trading, and investment income. OCBC's net interest income saw a marginal 1% decline, but the bank remains a strong player in Singapore's banking sector.

Investment Considerations

As of January 2025, all three banks are trading near their all-time highs, with dividend yields around 5%. Analysts have raised target prices for these banks, citing expectations of fewer US interest rate cuts, which could help sustain net interest margins. DBS has a revised target price of S$46, OCBC at S$18, and UOB at S$40, indicating potential upsides of 5% to 8%.

Given the strong performance and positive outlook, investing in these banks within a one-year period could be advantageous. However, it's essential to consider potential risks, such as macroeconomic shifts and net interest margin compression over time. Diversifying your investment across these institutions may help mitigate risks and provide exposure to Singapore's stable banking sector.

If I have $50,000 SGD and plan to diversify among the three major Singapore banks—DBS (SGX: D05), UOB (SGX: U11), and OCBC (SGX: O39)—you can allocate your investment based on several factors: dividend yield, growth potential, and your personal risk tolerance. Here's a diversified approach for a one-year time frame:

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1. Allocate Equal Weights (33% Each)

This approach ensures simplicity and equal exposure to the banks:

• DBS: $16,666 SGD (~33%)
• UOB: $16,666 SGD (~33%)
• OCBC: $16,666 SGD (~33%)

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2. Focus on Dividend Yield

If you prioritize dividend income, allocate based on their projected yields:

• DBS: Dividend yield ~5.34%
• OCBC: Dividend yield ~5%
• UOB: Dividend yield ~5%

Allocation idea (weight more on the higher-yield stock):

• DBS: $20,000 SGD (~40%)
• OCBC: $15,000 SGD (~30%)
• UOB: $15,000 SGD (~30%)

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3. Balance Growth and Income

If you want a mix of income (dividends) and growth (potential price appreciation), you can allocate more to DBS and UOB, as they have recently shown stronger trading and investment income growth.

Allocation:

• DBS: $18,000 SGD (~36%)
• UOB: $18,000 SGD (~36%)
• OCBC: $14,000 SGD (~28%)

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Projected Investment Schedule Over 1 Year

To reduce the risk of market volatility, you can dollar-cost average (DCA) your $50,000 over 12 months. For instance, invest $4,166 per month in proportion to your allocation strategy.

Example (Equal Allocation):

• Invest $1,388/month in DBS, UOB, and OCBC for 12 months.

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Fasting as a way of life

Since i started fasting on 31st Dec 2024. I have not look back. My recent blood test and high blood pressure readings showed that my kidney has returned back to stage and my blood pressure has dropped to 108/75 normal range. I've been down the rabbit hole of researching about the fasting how it provides more benefits then downside. Though those who are malnutrition and pregnant are not advised to do fasting. As i understand through the obesity book by Jason Fung. It provides insights that fasting has been around centuries and it is only recently that Science has catch up on fasting benefits for the last 8-9 years. 

By dropping my breakfast, i am able to fast for at least 16 hours per day. From there i build up my fasting muscles whereby i have gone up to 24 hours will no food, only drinking water. I feel more energetic except for the pangs of hunger which i felt it during lunch time. However once i endure through it, i'm able to withstand hunger pangs. I distract myself by keeping myself busy and focused. 

To be honest, it was not easy at the start as i'm used to my eating habits whereby i used to eat 5 meals per day. I was having bread toast and tea for morning, lunch, tea break, dinner, night snacks. This was somehow my meals back during my army days. I did exercise and i thought i can exercise my way to health, unfortunately it is not that simple. I'm in my 6 weeks of intermittent fasting and i shows no signs of stopping. It is simply more on arranging the foods that i love to eat within my eating window. I can also do 24 hours fast from Friday to Saturday as my last meal will be lunch and all the way to Saturday lunch. Initially it seems tough but after a while my fasting muscles are built up and i have not look back since.  My blood pressure has maintained to 110 / 75 and below.

I will continue to do intermittent fasting and by early April 2025, i hope to have good results from my blood test to check whether i still have any creatine and also my kidney function and also to weal off my high blood medication. Stay tune to my health update in April 2025